Hallucinations are plausible but false statements generated by language models. They can show up in surprising ways, even for seemingly straightforward questions. For example, when we asked a widely used chatbot for the title of the PhD dissertation by Adam Tauman Kalai (an author of this paper), it confidently produced three different answers—none of them correct. When we asked for his birthday, it gave three different dates, likewise all wrong.

Hallucinations persist partly because current evaluation methods set the wrong incentives. While evaluations themselves do not directly cause hallucinations, most evaluations measure model performance in a way that encourages guessing rather than honesty about uncertainty.

Think about it like a multiple-choice test. If you do not know the answer but take a wild guess, you might get lucky and be right. Leaving it blank guarantees a zero. In the same way, when models are graded only on accuracy, the percentage of questions they get exactly right, they are encouraged to guess rather than say “I don’t know.”

As another example, suppose a language model is asked for someone’s birthday but doesn’t know. If it guesses “September 10,” it has a 1-in-365 chance of being right. Saying “I don’t know” guarantees zero points. Over thousands of test questions, the guessing model ends up looking better on scoreboards than a careful model that admits uncertainty.